Substantial tax rises will be required to meet growing pressure on health and social care services over the next 15 years, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has said.
A new report published in partnership with The Health Foundation said adult social care spending is likely to have to rise by 3.9% a year over the next 15 years, taking an extra 0.4% of national income.
Paul Johnson, director of IFS and co-author of the report, said: “We are finally coming face to face with one of the biggest choices in a generation. If we are to have a health and social care system which meets our needs and aspirations, we will have to pay a lot more for it over the next 15 years.
“This time we won’t be able to rely on cutting spending elsewhere – we will have to pay more in tax. But it is a choice: higher taxes and a health and social care system which meets our expectations and improves over time, or taxes at current levels and a more constrained health service delivering less than we have become accustomed to.”
Funding the projected increases in health and social care spending through the tax system is projected to require a rise of between 1.6% and 2.6% of GDP, or between £34bn and £56bn, equivalent to £1,200 to £2,000 per household.